Inside Trump’s Decision to Skip the G.O.P. Debate

On a cool August evening on the crowded patio of his non-public membership in New Jersey, former President Donald J. Trump held up his cellphone to his dinner companions.

The Republican front-runner was having dinner with a Fox Information contributor and columnist, Charlie Harm, when a name got here in from one other member of the Fox crew. The person on the opposite finish of the road, Mr. Trump was delighted to indicate his visitors, was Bret Baier, one of many two moderators of the primary Republican debate on Wednesday, in line with two individuals with information of the decision.

It was Mr. Trump’s second Fox dinner that week. The evening earlier than, he had hosted the Fox Information president, Jay Wallace, and the community’s chief govt, Suzanne Scott, who had gone to Bedminster, N.J., hoping to steer Mr. Trump to attend the talk. Mr. Baier was calling to get a really feel for the previous president’s newest considering.

For months, Fox had been working Mr. Trump privately and publicly. He was holding them guessing, in his patented petulant manner. However whilst he behaved as if he was listening to entreaties, Mr. Trump was continuing with a plan for his personal counterprogramming to the talk.

The previous president has instructed aides that he has made up his thoughts to not take part within the debate and has determined to submit a web-based interview with Tucker Carlson that evening as an alternative, in line with individuals briefed on the matter.

Upstaging Fox’s largest occasion of the yr can be provocation sufficient. However an interview with Mr. Carlson — who was Fox’s top-rated prime-time host and is at conflict with the community, which remains to be paying out his contract — quantities to a slap within the community’s face by Mr. Trump. The choice is a possible supply of aggravation for the Republican Nationwide Committee chairwoman, Ronna McDaniel, who privately urged him to attend, together with in her personal go to to Bedminster final month.

However Mr. Trump’s major motive in skipping the talk just isn’t private animosity towards Ms. McDaniel however a crass political calculation: He doesn’t need to danger his large lead in a Republican race that some near him imagine he should win to remain out of jail.

However that’s not the one cause.

‘They Purposely Present the Completely Worst Footage of Me’

Mr. Trump’s relationship with Fox — a long-running saga that has been each profitable and, extra just lately, extraordinarily expensive for the community — is the opposite difficulty that looms massive in his excited about the talk, in line with individuals accustomed to the president’s conversations. They spoke on the situation of anonymity as a result of they weren’t licensed to talk for the marketing campaign.

His professed hatred of Fox — and the animus he typically privately expresses in regards to the chairman of Fox Company, Rupert Murdoch — is blended together with his recognition of Mr. Murdoch’s energy and a grudging acknowledgment that the community can nonetheless have an effect on his picture with Republican voters.

“Why doesn’t Fox and Pals present the entire Polls the place I’m beating Biden, by loads,” Mr. Trump posted on his web site, Reality Social, on Thursday morning, venting in regards to the community’s morning present. He added: “Additionally, they purposely present the completely worst footage of me, particularly the massive ‘orange’ one with my chin pulled manner again. They suppose they’re getting away with one thing, they’re not.”

The Fox crew engaged on the talk has ready two units of plans for Wednesday evening: One for if Mr. Trump exhibits up and one other for if he doesn’t. Mr. Baier has spoken to Mr. Trump at the very least 4 instances over the cellphone to make his case. Mr. Trump has defined his reluctance, however at all times left the door open to a late change of plans, in line with the individuals accustomed to the calls.

Fox executives count on the viewers for Wednesday’s debate to be decrease than the document 24 million who watched the primary Republican debate in August 2015, even when Mr. Trump exhibits up, although his presence would virtually actually increase curiosity.

“President Trump is rankings gold, and everybody acknowledges that,” mentioned Steven Cheung, the Trump marketing campaign’s communications director.

Mr. Trump has tried to make use of his leverage to get friendlier protection. Throughout his dinner with the 2 Fox executives, Mr. Wallace and Ms. Scott, Mr. Trump needled them in regards to the community’s protection of him. He instructed them he was skeptical that Mr. Murdoch — whom Mr. Trump has recognized for many years — was not dictating the daytime political protection that the previous president discovered egregious.

Mr. Trump, who has typically complained about what he contends is Fox’s glowing protection of Gov. Ron DeSantis, dismissed a current interview Mr. Baier carried out with Mr. DeSantis as “comfortable.” Mr. Trump additionally instructed the Fox executives he couldn’t imagine they’d fired Mr. Carlson.

Mr. Baier, who helped average Mr. Trump’s first-ever political debate in August 2015 and has golfed with him, has an advanced relationship with the previous president.

Mr. Baier, who will co-host Wednesday’s debate with Martha MacCallum, interviewed Mr. Trump in June, an encounter Mr. Trump first referred to as “truthful” however then complained was “unfriendly.” That change of coronary heart got here after information protection identified the hurt Mr. Trump might have brought on himself legally together with his solutions about issues associated to one of many federal instances in opposition to him.

A Fox Information spokeswoman, Irena Briganti, mentioned the community “appears ahead to internet hosting the primary debate of the Republican presidential major season providing viewers an unmatched alternative to be taught extra in regards to the candidates’ positions on quite a lot of points which is important to the electoral course of.”

‘Possibly I Ought to Simply Go’

Mr. Trump’s prime advisers oppose his participation within the debate to keep away from giving his rivals an opportunity to raise themselves at his expense and shut the huge hole between them within the polls.

However till earlier this previous week, Mr. Trump was nonetheless privately toying with the concept of attending. In a single dialog, Mr. Trump had mentioned, “Possibly I ought to simply go,” in line with an individual with information of the decision.

The previous president has been quizzing confidants recently about whether or not he ought to debate. He has fixated on former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, who is anticipated to be his harshest critic on the stage. And he has expressed a very intense disdain for the low-polling former governor of Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson, suggesting privately that it will be virtually insulting to share a stage with him, in line with an individual who spoke to Mr. Trump.

Senior members of Mr. Trump’s crew — Chris LaCivita, Jason Miller and Mr. Cheung — all plan to attend the talk. The Trump marketing campaign has organized for distinguished surrogates, together with members of Congress, to go to the “spin room” after the talk to make Mr. Trump’s case.

However as of Friday, Mr. Trump appeared to have misplaced curiosity in attending the talk, in line with individuals with information of his considering. And he’s now planning to try to upstage the occasion by taking part within the interview with Mr. Carlson, although the precise timing and on-line platform stay unclear.

Mr. Baier and Ms. MacCallum plan to make Mr. Trump a significant determine within the two-hour program — whether or not he exhibits up or not.

The Fox crew has ready inquiries to ask Trump rivals about his most up-to-date felony indictment, which was handed down by a grand jury in Georgia. They’re additionally contemplating integrating video of Mr. Trump into their questioning, in line with individuals accustomed to the planning.

The questions will start instantly. Candidates won’t be allowed to make opening statements. They’ll, nonetheless, be allotted 45-second closing statements. Every reply shall be restricted to at least one minute, with a sound like a lodge entrance desk’s bell alerting candidates that their time has expired. (Fox has retired the doorbell-like chime it used within the final debates after it despatched some canines into barking matches.)

In contrast to when Mr. Trump skipped a Fox debate in Iowa in January 2016, simply earlier than the caucuses there, Fox has had extra time to arrange for Mr. Trump’s absence.

This yr, the Republican Nationwide Committee up to date its guidelines to require candidates to signal a pledge no later than 48 hours earlier than the talk, together with commitments to help the occasion’s nominee no matter who it’s and to not take part in any future debates not sanctioned by the R.N.C.

Mr. Trump has not signed the pledge. R.N.C. officers have instructed people who no candidate, together with Mr. Trump, shall be allowed onstage with out signing it. However Mr. Trump is way from principled on the matter. He has already signed the same pledge vowing to “typically imagine in” and “intend to help the nominees and platform” of the G.O.P. in 2024 with the intention to qualify for the South Carolina major poll, in line with a celebration official within the state.

In 2016, Fox didn’t know till the final minute potential that he was not going to indicate up. And even as soon as the talk began, the hosts and producers had been bracing for the chance that he would possibly arrive in the course of the printed and demand to be allowed on the stage.